[NEWS] This is what the markets will live up to: will the MPC be afraid

In the absence of Americans celebrating Independence Day, the markets will include, among others data on Germany’s foreign trade, inflation in Switzerland and Turkey, and the Sentix index reading.

Information on the rate of price growth will probably be of particular interest. Economists estimate that in June, inflation in the Helvetian country exceeded 3% for the first time in 14 years. The Turks, on the other hand, are struggling with galloping inflation – officially at a rate of over 70%, and unofficially over 160%. per year.

Tuesday, July 5

On Tuesday, we will know the decision of the Australians on interest rates. Analysts expect a 50 bp hike to 1.35 percent. in the case of a base rate. In addition, we are facing a flood of PMI readings for industrial sectors.

Wednesday, July 6

On Wednesday, the decision to raise interest rates. They will probably announce Romania, which so far stand out from other countries in the wider region. The base cost of BNR money is only 3.75 per cent, while in the case of the central banks of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary it is 6 per cent, 7 per cent, respectively. and 7.75 percent In May, consumer inflation in Romania was 14.5%.

At. At 8:00 CET data on industrial orders will be released by Germany. At 4:00 p.m. the service sector ISM report will arrive from overseas, followed 4 hours later by the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting.

Thursday, July 7

The meeting of the Monetary Policy Council will be the highlight of the week (and perhaps of the month) in the domestic market. We are likely to face another interest rate hike for the 10th time in a row. The market consensus forecasts a move by 75bps to 6.75%. in the case of the reference rate, although analysts’ forecasts have clearly diverged in recent days. On the one hand, bad data from the real economy may persuade the MPC members to slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening in fear of recession, on the other hand, still accelerating inflation suggests a further increase in the cost of money. Perhaps it will be the last or the last rate hike in this cycle.

In addition, Germany will publish data on industrial production, and the Americans: foreign trade statistics and the ADP report.