[News] BP analysts indicate when flats may start

PKO BP data, the average transaction price in the second quarter of 2022 on the primary market in the 6 largest cities increased by 0.3%. Kdk and 13.7 percent. y / y as compared to an increase of 17.7 percent. yoy in Q1. A drop in the average price compared to Q1 was recorded in Kraków, Łódź, Poznań and Wrocław. The prices of flats in the Warsaw primary market increased by 1.7%. kdk.

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We estimate that in the second half of the year, transaction prices of flats will start to decline gradually. The projected decline in prices results mainly from a significantly reduced demand due to an increase in interest rates and a tightening of lending policy as a result of the KNF’s recommendation for banks” – analysts assessed in the report.

At the same time, the housing boom in recent years has launched many new investment projects and strengthened the weakened supply side of the market, especially outside the largest cities, which in the current phase of the business cycle is not conducive to maintaining price increases, they added.

As they indicated, the peak of apartment sales fell in the second quarter of 2021 and a gradual decline in transaction volumes has been observed for a year, with a very strong decline in May and June this year.